Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 2.487543 2.908759 3.376198 3.932939 4.577553 5.300022 6.170798
2025-12-14 1.769927 2.313225 2.982169 3.864370 4.995216 6.394091 8.253922
2025-12-21 1.354752 1.940981 2.727127 3.853863 5.422328 7.522882 10.543613
2025-12-28 1.173728 1.815881 2.740484 4.160249 6.275501 9.298548 13.932905
2026-01-04 0.985601 1.631983 2.622840 4.239204 6.794386 10.658148 16.918069
2026-01-11 0.842605 1.482967 2.521226 4.308794 7.287281 12.021468 20.074463
2026-01-18 0.721256 1.342691 2.403470 4.322154 7.675997 13.253476 23.168099
2026-01-25 0.617672 1.211784 2.275733 4.290370 7.971561 14.354135 26.168714
2026-02-01 0.504046 1.040459 2.046669 4.038017 7.834947 14.686360 27.868705
2026-02-08 0.426091 0.922535 1.895067 3.900759 7.879538 15.329816 30.186157
2026-02-15 0.373088 0.844803 1.807228 3.870003 8.115773 16.343987 33.304130
2026-02-22 0.345520 0.815444 1.810808 4.021051 8.726769 18.137376 38.129598
2026-03-01 0.302692 0.746890 1.726343 3.985242 8.971228 19.281338 41.898678
2026-03-08 0.265274 0.684092 1.645022 3.945590 9.206947 20.449121 45.897811
2026-03-15 0.235813 0.634622 1.585393 3.944969 9.528099 21.837986 50.551685
2026-03-22 0.229363 0.641307 1.657614 4.262000 10.613750 25.013505 59.505470
2026-03-29 0.209892 0.610398 1.633846 4.344082 11.161579 27.061887 66.190798
2026-04-05 0.192135 0.580578 1.607716 4.415765 11.693860 29.139651 73.203881
2026-04-12 0.173804 0.545473 1.561990 4.429592 12.083837 30.930540 79.761405
2026-04-19 0.155785 0.507609 1.502459 4.397097 12.350133 32.455146 85.862129
2026-04-26 0.131757 0.446567 1.368392 4.138711 11.983201 32.364902 87.928575
2026-05-03 0.114990 0.404632 1.281361 3.998162 11.913582 33.018273 91.974578
2026-05-10 0.103653 0.377914 1.234500 3.966668 12.143121 34.479160 98.318430